During our years of operation we have received many questions on our rating system, where we are currently using a 1 – 5 scale. Many of the questions have pinpointed the fact that we, in the past, have rated most picks as “1/5” which has led to confusion regarding whether that means that we don’t have much faith in the pick. Since there is little space to elaborate on the system in a single tweet, we have communicated a standard response to these concerns: “The rating signals how comfortable we are with a particular pick. However, we don’t publish anything that we’re not comfortable with”. What we mean by this, is that we believe that a pick with the rating “1/5” is still a good bet, despite the relatively low rating. We have also mentioned that rating “1/5” is just the standard rating, implying to our followers not to be too concerned about it.
Perhaps adding to the general confusion, in our tweets we also publish a stake below the pick. The stake is not a recommendation; it’s a way for us to keep track of our performance over time. A few picks with a stake of 20 EUR have been marked with the rating: “1/5”, whereas some picks with a stake of 10 EUR have been marked “2/5”.
“How can this be?” you might wonder. Well, in fact there are situations where we are more comfortable with e.g. risking 10 EUR at the odds 4.00, than risking 20 EUR at the odds 1.75. Even though the probability of winning the 10 EUR pick is much lower than winning the 20 EUR pick, we might find relatively more value in the 10 EUR pick without being willing to risk more than 10 EUR. At other times, a higher rating will imply a higher stake. However, the point we would like to make is that a high rating does not automatically mean that we will communicate a high stake and vice versa.
To be fair, there is room for improvements and our aim is to start working more actively with the rating system. Not least, we will be striving at becoming better at differentiating the picks so that you as a follower can find an even higher value in our service as such.
Going forward, from January 2016 and onwards, we will raise the standard rating from “1/5” to “2/5” in order to make the rating system more relevant. However, you will continue to see a number of “1/5” picks and this rating will still not mean that we don’t have faith in the pick. Also in the future we will be comfortable with all picks we publish. Moreover, we will work hard with the differentiation and thus increase the frequency of “3/5” and “4/5” picks. Having said this, you will likely continue to see very few “5/5” picks.
The simple reason why we have been keeping the rating low on a general level deserves to be revealed: it’s difficult not only to value a pick in relation to the pick itself; but particularly to rate it in relation to other picks – especially when you publish thousands of picks per year and on top of that are more than one person in the tipster team. The fact that most of the picks are inplays adds another dimension to the challenge; evaluation, decision making and communication at a quick notice. On top of that our strategy is high activity betting – to lower the general risk and boosting absolute return; does also not go hand-in-hand with a high average rating on our picks. Digging into and elaborating on the topic even further, would deserve another article. However, in short, what is behind the rating number we assign a particular pick, is built up of the following parameters:
- Knowledge. What the tipster knows about the league, the teams, the players etc.
- Statistics. Team form, position in the league, home/away performance etc.
- Access to live stream. If the tipster watches the game live. What you see is what you see.
- Time. The less time a tipster has to communicate a pick, the higher the uncertainty, which may, on the margin, lower the rating.
- Experience. Each tipster has various accumulated experience and will select picks based on situations and a setups that has been seen many times before.
- Value. What our tipsters find to be of certain or good value may differ from what others would regard as attractive value.
- Seasonal aspects. It’s more difficult to predict outcomes various seasons of the year.
- Form. Betting outcome can be influenced by the form of the tipster. Good form may indeed have a little effect on the rating of a pick.
- Feel. Sometimes you just get a strong feel what is going to happen next.
From 1 January 2016 this is how to understand the PinchBet rating system:
1/5 = Interesting bet, worth going for
2/5 = Standard bet, perceived to be a good bet
3/5 = Attractive bet, good value
4/5 = Very attractive bet, extraordinary good value
5/5 = A bell. If you see one: ring it.
Questions? Please contact us at info(at)pinchbet.com or send us a DM on Twitter.
Thanks and Good Luck!
/The PinchBet team